Nigeria’s Oil Theft Losses Jump 93% in 2026 Despite Five-Year Decline, Raise Fresh Revenue Concerns
Nigeria’s Oil Theft Losses Jump 93% in 2026 Despite Five-Year Decline, Raise Fresh Revenue Concerns
By Akin Alade
Nigeria’s fight against crude oil theft has achieved considerable progress over the past five years, but the latest figures from the petroleum industry reveal a worrying reversal. Despite the significant reduction in stolen crude and pipeline losses since 2021, fresh statistics indicate that the country is once again experiencing rising oil losses, creating new concerns about revenue protection, pipeline security and the sustainability of recent achievements.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), daily crude oil losses declined by 82.9 per cent, from 102,900 barrels per day in 2021 to 17,600 barrels per day between January and July 2026. However, a closer examination of the figures reveals that losses increased by 93.4 per cent compared with the 9,100 barrels per day recorded in 2025. The development suggests that Nigeria’s efforts to eliminate crude oil theft still face serious obstacles despite years of security interventions.
Figures contained in the commission’s fifth anniversary publication, The Upstream Gaze, provide further insight into the country’s progress. Daily crude oil losses dropped from 102,900 barrels in 2021 to 55,000 barrels in 2022, before declining to 22,900 barrels in 2023. The downward trend continued in 2024, when losses fell to 11,200 barrels daily, and reached a five-year low of 9,100 barrels in 2025. However, the sharp increase recorded during the first seven months of 2026 has interrupted that consistent improvement.
The Federal Government has linked the reduction in oil theft over the years to coordinated military operations, strengthened pipeline surveillance, the involvement of local security groups in the Niger Delta and the introduction of modern crude oil measurement systems. These measures have helped improve the protection of petroleum installations and transportation infrastructure. Nevertheless, the renewed increase in losses raises important questions about the effectiveness of existing safeguards and the need to prevent criminal networks from rebuilding their operations.
Interestingly, Nigeria’s crude oil production has continued to recover despite the latest security challenges. Official statistics show that average crude production rose from 1.14 million barrels per day in 2022 to 1.46 million barrels per day between January and July 2026. When condensates are included, total liquid hydrocarbon production averaged 1.63 million barrels daily during the period, demonstrating a gradual recovery in upstream petroleum activities and the country’s capacity to improve output.
Another significant development is the growing demand for crude oil from domestic refineries. The NUPRC figures show that daily crude allocations to local refineries increased from 280,000 barrels in 2025 to 460,000 barrels during the first seven months of 2026, representing a 64.3 per cent increase. This expansion reflects Nigeria’s increasing domestic refining capacity and its broader efforts to strengthen local petroleum processing while reducing dependence on imported refined products.
However, the improvement in domestic refinery supply has coincided with a reduction in crude oil exports. Average daily exports declined from 1.33 million barrels in 2025 to 1.15 million barrels between January and July 2026, representing a 13.5 per cent decrease. This situation presents a major policy challenge for the Federal Government, which must balance the crude requirements of domestic refineries with the country’s continuing need for foreign exchange earnings from international oil sales.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian Navy has continued its crackdown on illegal petroleum activities in the Niger Delta. In a recent operation, naval personnel uncovered approximately 132,000 litres of suspected stolen crude oil concealed in 10 dugout pits in Allison community, Bonny Local Government Area of Rivers State. The discovery, made under Operation Delta Sentinel, highlights the continued presence of illegal oil theft networks and the importance of intelligence-led security operations across petroleum-producing communities.
For President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, the renewed increase in crude oil losses presents an important test of its commitment to protecting national petroleum assets, increasing government revenue and attracting investment into the energy industry. Although the five-year reduction represents substantial progress, the latest figures demonstrate why stronger surveillance, improved accountability, effective prosecution of offenders and closer cooperation with oil-producing communities remain essential.
As crude oil continues to play a major role in Nigeria’s foreign exchange earnings and economic stability, the challenge before the Federal Government is to ensure that the achievements recorded since 2021 are not reversed. Beyond celebrating the 82.9 per cent decline in losses over five years, attention must now shift towards addressing the 93.4 per cent increase recorded in 2026, safeguarding petroleum infrastructure and ensuring that improved oil production translates into sustainable economic benefits for the country.